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Two new papers on para-transit in Asian cities


Two papers on para-transit in Asian cities (We newly call it “LAMAT – Locally Adopted and Modified Advancecd Transport”) have been published in Journal of EASTS (Eastern Asia Society for Transportation Studies):

(1) Determinants of Intention to Shift to a New High Quality Bus Service: A Mixed Logit Model Analysis for Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam

  • By Hong Tan VAN, Daisuke FUKUDA
  • Journal of the Eastern Asia Society for Transportation Studies, Volume 12 (2017) 2284-2298, Released: April 25, 2018
  • doi={https://doi.org/10.11175/easts.12.2284}
  • https://www.jstage.jst.go.jp/article/easts/12/0/12_2284/_article/-char/en
  • This paper discusses the determinants of the intention to shift to a new high-quality Locally Adapted, Modified, and Advanced Transport (LAMAT) bus service in Ho Chi Minh City using a stated preference (SP) survey. Mixed logit models (MXL) are used to estimate the mode choice between motorcycles (MCs) and LAMAT in the SP choices. The use of a panel-MXL is shown to significantly improve the estimation results compared with the standard multinomial logit model. Accordingly, heterogeneity in the LAMAT choice is largely explained by citizens’ unobserved characteristics, whereas their preference for time and money might be homogenous. Additionally, four mode-specific factors, i.e., provision of information, air conditioning, seat availability (LAMAT), and the risk of traffic accidents (MCs) are found to be significant determinants of the intention to use the LAMAT bus service.

(2) Estimation of Paratransit Passenger Boarding/Alighting Locations Using Wi-Fi based Monitoring: Results of Field Testing in Krabi City, Thailand

  • Journal of the Eastern Asia Society for Transportation Studies, Volume 12 (2017) 2151-2169, Released: April 25, 2018
  • DOI https://doi.org/10.11175/easts.12.2151
  • https://www.jstage.jst.go.jp/article/easts/12/0/12_2151/_article/-char/en
  • The objective of this study is to investigate the applicability of Wi-Fi monitoring technology to the estimation of the boarding and alighting locations of paratransit passengers via a small-scale field test that was conducted in Krabi City, Thailand. From the results, we determined that: (1) with use of appropriate data cleaning procedures, many of the noisy data could be eliminated to a reasonable degree; (2) it would be reasonable to ignore Wi-Fi data for which the moving distances are too short, and regard them as outliers or irrelevant records; (3) when the proposed matching methods are used with the ground truth data, suitable numbers of the Wi-Fi data are well matched.

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研究室で長年行っている「旅行時間信頼性 (Travel Time Variability)」に関する論文が刊行されました.朝倉康夫先生のグループとの共同研究です.

  • 福田 大輔,水口 正教,瀬尾 亨,日下部 貴彦,朝倉 康夫「広域・長期観測プローブ情報を用いたエリアレベルでの旅行時間信頼性評価」土木学会論文集D3(土木計画学)73 巻 (2017) 5号 pp. I_1105-I_1118. (本文


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都市計画論文集 Vol. 52 (2017) No. 3 都市計画論文集が刊行され、博士後期課程の壇辻さんの以下の研究が刊行されました。

Wi-Fiパケットデータを用いた観光客の滞在時間特性把握の可能性に関する研究 奈良県長谷寺参道における試み(壇辻貴生・杉下佳辰・福田大輔・浅野光行),都市計画論文集 Vol. 52 (2017) No. 3 都市計画論文集 p. 247-254.






Wi-Fiパケットデータを用いた観光客の滞在時間特性把握の可能性に関する研究 -奈良県長谷寺参道における試み−



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葛さんがBinN research Awardを受賞@第16回行動モデル夏の学校2017



研究員の葛さんが第16回行動モデル夏の学校2017のワークショップにて”Reservoir-based Surrogate Modeling of Dynamic Traffic Assignment”というタイトルでプレゼンテーションを行い,BinN research Awardを受賞しました.利用者均衡配分をリンク単位(microscopic)ではなくエリア単位(macroscopic)で行い,計算の負荷を軽減することを狙いとした研究です.

参考WebPage: 東京大学 羽藤研 英語版Twitter

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A new research paper on urban rail passenger demand forecasting in Tokyo


2016年4月に策定された国土交通省交通政策審議会答申「東京圏における今後の都市鉄道のあり方について」で用いられている東京都市圏鉄道需要予測モデルに関する研究論文が国際誌 “Transportation Research Record” に掲載決定しました(Conference Paperはこちらで閲覧できます).芝浦工業大学岩倉先生,東京大学加藤先生,運輸総合研究所伊東様,株式会社社会システムの皆様と数年に渡って議論と分析を繰返してきた内容であり,我が国の都市鉄道需要予測手法の State-of-Practice を海外に発信することができました.関係各位に深くお礼申し上げます.

Latest Urban Rail Demand Forecast Model System in the Tokyo Metropolitan Area

By Hironori Kato, Daisuke Fukuda, Yoshihisa Yamashita, Seiji Iwakura and Tetsuo Yai

This paper reports on an urban rail travel demand forecast model system, which technically supported the formulation of the Tokyo Urban Rail Development Master-plan 2016. The model system was included in the forthcoming 15-year urban rail investment strategy for Tokyo. The model system was utilized to quantitatively assess urban rail projects including 24 new rail development projects, which had been proposed in response to expected changes in socio-demographic patterns, land-use market, and the government’s latest transportation policy goals. The system covers the entire urban rail network within the Tokyo Metropolitan Area (TMA) of approximately 50-km radius with a population of over 34 million. The system must handle over 80 million trips per day. Three demand models are used to predict daily rail passenger link flows: the urban rail demand model, the airport rail access demand model, and the high-speed-rail rail access demand model. These practical models have unique characteristics such as incorporating differences in behavior between aged and non-aged travelers, reflecting expected influences of urban redevelopment on trip generation and distribution, highlighting urban rail access to airports or high-speed-rail stations, examining impacts of in-vehicle crowding on rail route choice, and deploying urban rail-station access/egress mode choice models for rail route choice. It is concluded that the model system would be well calibrated with observed data for reproducing travel patterns, identifying potential problems, assessing proposed projects, presenting results with high accuracy, and assisting decision-making of urban rail planners.

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A new research paper on traffic information provision


下記の論文が国際誌 “Newroks and Spatial Economics” に掲載されました(豊田中央研究所の岩瀬氏・田所氏との共同研究です).観光交通等の非日常的の移動目的が卓越している行楽地への道路において,ドライバーにどのような情報提供を行えばネットワーク全体の効率性が向上するのかを,ゲーム理論の “Belief Design Approach” と呼ばれる理論をもとに解析したものです(プレプリント版はこちらより,正式版はこちらよりご覧いただけます).

Self-Fulfilling Signal of an Endogenous State in Network Congestion Games

By Tatsuya Iwase, Yukihiro Tadokoro, Daisuke Fukuda

We consider the problem of coordination via signaling in network congestion games to improve social welfare deteriorated by incomplete information about traffic flow. Traditional studies on signaling, which focus on exogenous factors of congestion and ignore congestion externalities, fail to discuss the oscillations of traffic flow. To address this gap, we formulate a problem of designing a coordination signal on endogenous information about traffic flow and introduce a it self-fulfilling characteristic of a signal that guarantees an outcome flow consistent with the signal itself without causing the unwanted oscillation. An instance of the self-fulfilling signal is shown in the case of a Gaussian signal distribution. In addition, we show simple numerical examples. The results reveal how a self-fulfilling signal suppresses the oscillation and simultaneously improves social welfare through improved network efficiency.

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土木学会論文集D3特集号 Vol.72,No.5(土木計画学研究・論文集Vol.33)が刊行され,卒業生の遠藤さんの修士論文をベースとした以下の論文が刊行されました.なお,この論文は,本年度の土木計画学研究委員会優秀論文賞を受賞いたしました.





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New Member (中西特任助教)



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New Member (山口研究員)



20160904Yamaguchi.jpgTSU Summer Seminar で博士論文の内容をご発表頂きました.

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